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11/12 10:37 CST College football picks: Trend of going for it on 4th down
continues to rise and so does success rate
College football picks: Trend of going for it on 4th down continues to rise and
so does success rate
By ERIC OLSON
AP College Football Writer
College football teams are on pace to go for it on fourth down rather than punt
or attempt a field goal more often than in any in the past 10 seasons and
probably ever. Teams also are converting at the highest rate.
Through Week 11, the average number of fourth-down conversion attempts per game
(both teams) is 3.64, according to Sportradar. That's up 7.7% compared with the
same point last season. The conversion rate is 54.9%, up from 54%.
The burgeoning influence of analytics since the early 2010s has led to more
aggressive in-game decisions. In situations where a team traditionally would
punt, extensive data analysis showed that the reward of going for it on fourth
down at times was greater than the risk.
The NCAA record book does not include year-by-year trends for fourth-down
conversions. Sportradar has tracked the statistic since 2015, and the highest
attempts-per-game average is 3.6 in 2022. The highest full-season conversion
rate, not including the 2020 pandemic season, is 53.8% in 2021.
This season, Florida Atlantic has gone for it an average of 5.44 times per game
and has a nation-leading 49 attempts. The Owls have converted 67.4%. Cincinnati
has converted 10 of its FBS-low 11 attempts. Of 136 FBS teams, 81 have
converted at least 50%.
The picks for this week's games, with Top 25 rankings and lines from BetMGM
Sportsbook:
UCLA at No. 1 Ohio State (minus 31 1/2) Carnell Tate sat out against Purdue but should be back. He, Jeremiah Smith and Julian Sayin will be too much for UCLA's overmatched defense. UCLA QB Nico Iamaleava can't do it all against the nation's best defense, though he tried last week against Nebraska. Pick: Ohio State 48-14. Wisconsin (plus 30 1/2) at No. 2 Indiana Hoosiers' narrow escape from Penn State kept them in position to go through a regular season unbeaten and untied for the first time. Badgers' upset of a ranked Washington last week will keep Hoosiers focused. Pick: Indiana 38-10. South Carolina at No. 3 Texas A&M (minus 19 1/2) Passing game coordinator Mike Furrey is Gamecocks' new play-caller. He got two weeks to prepare, and that's not enough to improve the SEC's worst offense. Aggies have held four conference opponents under 300 yards and to 17 points or fewer. Pick: Texas A&M 35-13. No. 11 Oklahoma at No. 4 Alabama (minus 6 1/2) Alabama wants payback after the Sooners ended its playoff hopes last year. OU's top-10 defense is good enough to keep Tide in check, but John Mateer has thrown four interceptions and just two TD passes in four games since his hand surgery. Pick: Alabama 24-17. No. 10 Texas (plus 6) at No. 5 Georgia College Football Playoff implications abound. Longhorns are fighting for their lives. Bulldogs probably could survive a loss here. These are two evenly matched teams. Edge goes to the one playing at home. Pick: Georgia 22-20. Florida at No. 6 Mississippi (minus 16 1/2) Lane Kiffin, mentioned as a potential candidate for the vacant Florida job, will seek retribution for the Gators' upset of his Rebels in Gainesville last year. Don't expect much resistance from a team that appeared to give up against Kentucky last week. Pick: Mississippi 40-9. Minnesota (plus 25 1/2) at No. 7 Oregon Ducks, who got out of Iowa with an 18-16 win last week, come off a short week and face another opponent that will do all it can to slow the game down. Pick: Oregon 29-16. UCF at No. 8 Texas Tech (minus 24) UCF hasn't beaten a top-10 opponent since knocking off Auburn in the 2017 Peach Bowl, the last game Scott Frost coached before heading to Nebraska. Frost's return to Orlando has been a struggle so far. Pick: Texas Tech 42-10. No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 23 Pittsburgh (plus 12 1/2) Fighting Irish love to run the ball with Jeremiyah Love. Panthers are among the best in the country at stopping it. Pitt has a rising star in freshman QB Mason Heintschel. Pick: Pittsburgh 27-26. TCU at No. 12 BYU (minus 4 1/2) Cougars didn't meet the moment at Texas Tech last week, but they still control their destiny in the Big 12 if they win out. TCU plays its first ranked opponent. Pick: BYU 30-24. No. 14 Georgia Tech (minus 16 1/2) at Boston College Georgia Tech averages 221 rushing yards per game and will be going against a defense that ranks 100th against the run. Pick: Georgia Tech 45-21. No. 15 Utah (minus 8 1/2) at Baylor Utes have scored at least 42 points in four of their last five games and are a nightmare matchup for the Bears with a Devon Dampier-led offense that leads the Big 12 in rushing. Pick: Utah 38-27. NC State (plus 14 1/2) at No. 16 Miami Wolfpack rose up to beat Virginia and Georgia Tech but still need another win to achieve bowl eligibility. Miami could be without Mark Fletcher Jr. for second straight game. Pick: Miami 28-19. Iowa at No. 17 Southern California (minus 6 1/2) USC's 500-yards-a-game offense goes against Iowa's top-five defense. Hawkeyes surely studied how Nebraska held Trojans to season low for yards two weeks ago. Problem is, Iowa's offense ranks 122nd. Pick: USC 23-12. No. 18 Michigan (minus 11 1/2) vs. Northwestern, at Wrigley Field Wolverines are motivated by hopes of reaching Big Ten championship game and CFP. Northwestern averages just 18.3 points per game against Big Ten opponents. Pick: Michigan 31-16. Clemson (plus 3) at No. 19 Louisville Clemson, ranked No. 4 in the preseason, dropped off the radar after a 1-3 start. Tigers can still get to a bowl if they win two of the last three. Louisville still kicking itself over losing to California. Pick: Clemson 24-23. No. 20 Virginia at Duke (minus 5 1/2) The likely absence of Cavaliers QB Chandler Morris (head) puts Blue Devils in position to steal a win. ACC passing leader Darian Mensah in bounce-back mode after turning over the ball three times in loss to UConn. Pick: Duke 34-17. New Mexico State at No. 21 Tennessee (minus 39 1/2) Tennessee has scored more than 40 points in six games and will again even if Joey Aguilar sits out most of the second half. Pick: Tennessee 52-10. Arizona at No. 22 Cincinnati (minus 6 1/2) Cincinnati better not look ahead to its big home game against BYU next week because the Wildcats can be a handful. Arizona's defense has been stout, and it leads the Big 12 with 12 interceptions. Pick: Cincinnati 26-21. Appalachian State (plus 21) at No. 24 James Madison James Madison is ranked for the first time under second-year coach Bob Chesney. Mountaineers have lost three straight by a total of 13 points. Pick: James Madison 33-20. No. 25 South Florida (minus 10 1/2) at Navy South Florida is averaging better than 50 points per game against American Conference opponents. Navy has allowed 31-plus points in five straight games. Pick: South Florida 43-23. Bye: No. 13 Vanderbilt. AP predictions scorecard Last week: Straight-up --- 10-5; Against spread --- 6-9. Season: Straight-up --- 140-43; Against spread --- 87-95-1. ___ Get poll alerts and updates on the AP Top 25 throughout the season. Sign up here. AP college football: https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll and https://apnews.com/hub/college-football |
