USDA Livestock Outlook        02/19 07:54

   Livestock, Poultry Prices Expected to Rise in 2026 Due to Demand, Tight 
Cattle Supplies

   Beef production is expected to decline again in 2026, but growth in pork, 
turkey and broilers is expected to offset the decline. Consumer demand isn't 
declining but remains strong and is expected to support prices for the 
livestock and poultry sectors.

Chris Clayton
DTN Ag Policy Editor

   ARLNGTON, Va. (DTN) -- Reflecting strong demand and tight cattle supplies, 
USDA projects fed cattle, hogs, broilers and turkey prices are all expected to 
be stronger in 2026 than in 2025.

   USDA's Outlook for Livestock and Poultry was released on Thursday as part of 
USDA's Agricultural Outlook Forum in Arlington, Virginia.

   Total red meat and poultry production is forecast to reach 108.4 billion 
pounds in 2026, a 1% increase from 2025. Meat and poultry production actually 
declined slightly in 2025 at 107.1 billion pounds, primarily due to lower beef 
production, USDA stated.

   Beef production is expected to decline again in 2026, but growth in pork, 
turkey and broilers is expected to offset the decline.

   Consumer demand isn't declining but remains strong and is expected to 
support prices for the livestock and poultry sectors.

   FEED PRICES

   USDA expects feed prices will be lower in 2026 for livestock producers, 
"continuing the downward trend in corn, soybean meal, and alfalfa hay prices" 
that began in 2024. That's pegged to the record 2025-26 corn crop along with 
higher domestic crush of soybeans generating more soybean meal.

   CATTLE AND BEEF

   Cattle prices are forecast to rise in 2026. The 5-area steer price for 2026 
is forecast at an average of $240 per cwt, up 7% from 2025 "as strong demand 
for beef and constrained cattle supplies will provide support for cattle 
values."

   Higher prices are also expected for the feeder cattle market as the smaller 
herd will keep demand for feeder cattle strong. Feeder cattle prices for 750- 
to 800-pound calves are projected at an average of $364 per cwt, a 13% increase 
from the 2025 average.

   Tight beef supplies have affected exports. Beef exports were down 15% in 
2025 "as tighter domestic beef supplies and higher prices limit the volume of 
beef shipped to international markets." That trend is expected to continue with 
beef exports projected to decline 6% in 2026 as well.

   At the same time, beef imports are projected to rise. Beef imports for 2026 
are expected to increase 3% after imports rose 15% in 2025 to 5.4 billion 
pounds through November. Imports from Australia rose 25% while imports from 
Brazil were up 39% and Mexico up 17%.

   HOGS AND PORK

   Hog prices are expected to increase just slightly to average $69 per cwt, 
compared to $68.80 per cwt for 2025.

   Prices will rise even as pork production is expected to increase nearly 3% 
to 28.3 billion pounds after production declined 1% in 2025 to 27.6 billion 
pounds.

   "Strong pork demand from domestic markets and exports is expected to support 
hog values, despite the projected increase in supplies," USDA stated.

   Pork exports are projected to increase 2% in 2026, "as U.S. competitiveness 
is expected to be supported by favorable exchange rates and improved access to 
certain markets due to hog disease issues in Europe."

   BROILER PRODUCTION

   Broiler production is projected to increase 1% in 2026 due to lower feed 
costs and continued improvements in productivity along with strong consumer 
demand for animal proteins. Broiler production topped 48 billion pounds in 
2025, up 2% from the previous year.

   Broiler exports are expected to remain unchanged at 6.7 billion pounds. U.S. 
exports will continue to face strong international competition, especially from 
Brazil, which will limit export growth.

   EGG PRODUCTION

   Egg production is projected to rise 6% to 9.2 billion dozen eggs. Egg 
production fell 4% in 2025 to 8.65 billion dozen eggs due to highly pathogenic 
avian influenza (HPAI) that affected more than 60 million layers in late 2024 
and early 2025. Growth is expected as the flock steadily rebuilds and producers 
return to a more typical pattern of flock turnover, USDA stated.

   TURKEY PRODUCTION

   Production is expected to increase nearly 3% to 5 billion pounds. Turkey 
prices remain strong as they have been supported by tight supplies in the last 
half of 2025, also due to impacts of HPAI on the flock.

   Turkey exports are expected to decline 4% to 400 million pounds in 2026 due 
to limited supplies for exports and higher prices.

   Chris Clayton can be reached at Chris.Clayton@dtn.com

   Follow him on social platform X @ChrisClaytonDTN

    




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